Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 101401.122553 106835.955097 112263.605352 118087.230949 124155.140613 130287.566734 136949.942588
2025-08-10 92225.108431 100531.026907 109051.650691 118435.002103 128467.248609 138860.696542 150431.151482
2025-08-17 85455.144985 95709.786502 106455.496511 118533.089223 131706.596919 145616.647920 161391.824868
2025-08-24 81068.285536 92870.648517 105458.241817 119845.463006 135796.220095 152900.289046 172588.957272
2025-08-31 76562.166894 89492.208655 103500.107486 119749.305256 138023.401310 157883.017295 181039.832094
2025-09-07 73788.209305 87798.482814 103187.414357 121271.257405 141862.739751 164501.516041 191192.840753
2025-09-14 71079.294412 85981.691910 102560.371736 122275.396153 144980.340382 170206.844243 200248.495842
2025-09-21 68163.039417 83755.872546 101313.145646 122427.102640 147002.994829 174577.603357 207722.377637
2025-09-28 65554.691019 81751.627079 100197.462063 122614.091365 148966.220017 178804.545010 214980.102995
2025-10-05 64168.695847 81105.300734 100592.880218 124500.624125 152856.761426 185226.787634 224773.376208
2025-10-12 62719.624990 80303.923167 100737.230350 126032.662298 156289.522831 191096.851104 233929.603658
2025-10-19 61037.969750 79143.583089 100385.963859 126914.718154 158907.548378 195986.711014 241933.162499
2025-10-26 59025.663639 77528.023393 99449.720531 127071.776090 160659.915198 199880.901526 248821.687287
2025-11-02 57279.667942 76179.345198 98784.585116 127512.778561 162723.844501 204135.006483 256152.802930
2025-11-09 55481.889931 74700.080334 97900.728006 127633.454881 164358.156590 207850.460723 262834.596069
2025-11-16 54423.808949 74109.348936 98077.943153 129031.248778 167533.909038 213420.832580 271771.490476
2025-11-23 52710.038121 72624.466942 97087.278204 128929.991948 168827.319524 216685.703532 277907.498030
2025-11-30 51898.508412 72266.423574 97485.795515 130546.630088 172238.905920 222539.461676 287226.610934
2025-12-07 50881.641915 71604.571630 97467.951683 131613.031923 174949.949154 227533.938758 295511.861032
2025-12-14 49511.407089 70436.313435 96764.559534 131774.140566 176499.072831 231081.953534 302017.596833
2025-12-21 48224.647232 69338.414694 96115.769033 131972.704279 178071.159674 234646.166354 308546.811019
2025-12-28 47776.284072 69338.382533 96875.264972 133975.808328 181937.325030 241086.269593 318692.098335
2026-01-04 47192.620091 69134.594496 97352.078832 135602.268515 185322.162884 246936.474236 328131.970898